Wednesday, September 9, 2009

China’s Strategic Advantages

After Pakistan got entangled in its war against Taliban and US pressure increased, China has thrown its full weight against India. Besides it is fully advantageous on all fronts. It is harping on the Arunachal theme. It has unleashed a full scale psychological war against India.
Over the last decade China’s relationship with Taiwan has improved vastly with the Kuomintang govt. led by Ma Ying Jao. Thus China’s military anxiety has decreased regarding Taiwan and it has begun to open new fronts against India.
North Korea’s nuclear blackmail of the US and its allies in the region has worked to China’s advantage. One of the reasons of Obama’s compromising attitude towards China is its influence on North Korea to dissuade it from nuclear brinkmanship.
China and the US are called economic Siamese twins and the recent downturn in world economy, specially the US economic disaster forced the Obama administration to embrace China even closer. The US sought the Chinese help to bail out the US economy.
Recent US anxiety over Myanmar’s nuclear ambitions also pushed the US towards China. Because of the North Korean and Pakistani connection the US felt once again the necessity of China.
The Democrat vision of the future is radically different from that of the Neo-Cons. The Republicans adopted a confrontationist path against China and wanted to project India as a counterweight. But the Democrats hold no great place for India. Instead they are worried about India’s nuclear ambitions and wants India to sign the CTBT. Besides it is not very supportive of the Nuke deal. Thus China finds India cornered by the new US administration and it wants to squeeze it.
Again the nearer India is drifting towards the US; the further it is going from Russia. Russia is worried about Indo-US proximity. It is also anxious over losing the Indian defense market to Israel and the US. So it is dilly-dallying to supply the Aircraft carrier Gorshkov as well as the N- submarine. Hence China is amused to find Indo-Russian relationship souring and India longing for high-tech defense hardware which no one but Russia supplies.
The unexpected collapse of the arch of democracy consisting of the US, Japan, Australia, and India came as a big relief for China. It was extremely worried about the maritime collaboration among these countries which it felt was directed to contain its expanding naval prowess and presence. This emboldened China to provoke India.
A great change is taking place in Japan. After more than five decades of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party’s rule, Democratic Party of Japan has come to power. The LDP was the champion of the Japan-US alliance. But the Democratic Party holds an altogether different world view. The Democratic Party’s manifesto pledges to reexamine the role of the US military in the security of the Asia-Pacific region and the significance of the US bases in Japan. Its leaders are also advocating improved ties with the former adversaries notably China and South Korea. Thus the new Japan will be much more friendly and co-operative for China.
Again India’s Pak headache has not diminished. Even before any hope of the Mumbai attackers being punished India is reeling under fear of similar types of attacks. Furthermore, the US is getting ready to give a substantial military help- to Pakistan. The news of Pakistan developing several types of missiles and the drones being produced by the PAF with technological help from Italy has unnerved India. China wants to utilize this strategic helplessness of India.
Again its Sri Lanka experiment of securing an order for building a port at Hambantota in exchange of its support for the destruction of the LTTE has been extremely successful. Further more Pak-Sri Lanka military co-operation is growing. Bangladesh and Myanmar has welcomed China. Nepal Maoists have created strategic opportunity for China.
Thus China feels time is ripe to punish India and resist it before it excels China in technological supremacy with the US and European help. The near-success of the Chandrayaan mission has raised the Chinese heckles.

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